Golden plover breed three times better with predator control

An eight-year field experiment on moorland in northern England found that controlling foxes and carrion crows roughly tripled the breeding success of golden plover, alongside lapwing, curlew, red grouse and meadow pipit. The association’s briefing, published on 27 August, draws that study together with two large surveys to argue that keepered moors are now among the best breeding grounds the species has left in England.

What did the eight-year experiment show?

Most evidence about wildlife on grouse moors comes from comparing managed and unmanaged ground, which cannot rule out other explanations for where birds settle. The experiment highlighted by the association, published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, avoided that problem by changing predator numbers while keeping habitat the same, then measuring what happened to breeding birds.

Controlling foxes and crows cut fox abundance by 43 per cent and crow abundance by 78 per cent. Golden plover, lapwing, curlew, red grouse and meadow pipit saw an average threefold increase in breeding success, levels the researchers said were consistent with stable or growing populations. Because habitat was held constant, the association argues this is genuine evidence of cause and effect rather than correlation.

The survey evidence points the same way

A survey of 320 sample squares across eastern Scotland and northern England, also published in the Journal of Applied Ecology, found breeding golden plover densities several times higher on managed grouse moors, and linked the difference to lower crow densities where predators were controlled.

A separate regional study of 18 estates, published in Ecology and Evolution, found positive associations between predator control and the abundance of golden plover, curlew and snipe, with the effect for golden plover among the strongest recorded.

Why it matters for the uplands debate

Golden plover nest in a shallow scrape on open ground, leaving eggs and chicks exposed to foxes and crows, so nest predation is one of the main barriers between a pair and a fledged brood. Gamekeepers on grouse moors control those predators year-round.

The species is green-listed in the UK’s Birds of Conservation Concern assessment, unlike red-listed curlew and lapwing, and the managed uplands are one reason why: the association’s note describes the bird as under pressure, and the moors where foxes and crows are kept in check are where it continues to breed well. Losing that predator control without a replacement, the association argues, would remove one of the few measures shown by experiment to lift breeding success.

What happens next?

The association is pressing for predator control to be recognised and funded in England’s farm and environment schemes, a case Shooting Times has reported. The full briefing, with links to all three studies, is on the Moorland Association website, and the original papers can be read at the journals below.